GDP per capita · Japan
Japan GDP per capita forecast
GDP per capita (current US$)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
$35,660
Median forecast · p10-p90: $32,336 to $40,716
24 months forecast · 2027
$35,356
Median forecast · p10-p90: $31,012 to $41,508
36 months forecast · 2028
$35,209
Median forecast · p10-p90: $29,784 to $42,462
Latest observed: $35,951 · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in Current US$
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | $2,540 | $2,084 | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | $4,258 | $3,601 | 50.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | $5,411 | $4,690 | 33.3% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $35,951 | +6.37% |
| 2024 | $33,797 | −4.03% |
| 2023 | $35,215 | −0.94% |
| 2022 | $35,548 | −14.51% |
| 2021 | $41,581 | +1.17% |
| 2020 | $41,099 | −0.79% |
| 2019 | $41,425 | +1.92% |
| 2018 | $40,645 | +2.43% |
| 2017 | $39,680 | −1.33% |
| 2016 | $40,215 | +12.76% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.