Unemployment forecast · World Bank data
South Africa unemployment forecast
Unemployment (% of labor force, ILO modeled)
Latest · 2025
32.4%
The unemployment rate in South Africa is forecast at 32.3% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of 30.4% to 34.6%. The latest World Bank figure is 32.4% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 32.2% and 32.0% (−0.3 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 32.4%■ 0.0 pp80%: 31.4% – 33.5%
- 12 months2026
- 32.3%▼ −0.1 pp80%: 30.4% – 34.6%
- 24 months2027
- 32.2%▼ −0.2 pp80%: 29.6% – 35.1%
- 36 months2028
- 32.0%▼ −0.3 pp80%: 28.9% – 35.5%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.66 pp | 1.40 pp | 80% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.53 pp | 1.81 pp | 75% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.87 pp | 1.83 pp | 67% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 32.4% | +0.11 pp |
| 2024 | 32.3% | +0.18 pp |
| 2023 | 32.1% | −1.17 pp |
| 2022 | 33.3% | −0.74 pp |
| 2021 | 34.0% | +4.79 pp |
| 2020 | 29.2% | +0.75 pp |
| 2019 | 28.5% | +1.56 pp |
| 2018 | 26.9% | −0.13 pp |
| 2017 | 27.0% | +0.50 pp |
| 2016 | 26.5% | +1.39 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS
- Data through
- 2025 · 35 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for South Africa
South Africa overviewOther unemployment forecasts
All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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