Unemployment · South Africa
South Africa unemployment forecast
Unemployment (% of labor force, ILO modeled)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
32.3%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 30.4% to 34.6%
24 months forecast · 2027
32.2%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 29.6% to 35.1%
36 months forecast · 2028
32.0%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 28.9% to 35.5%
Latest observed: 32.4% · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in % of labor force, ILO modeled
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.66 pp | 1.40 pp | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.53 pp | 1.81 pp | 75.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.87 pp | 1.83 pp | 66.7% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 1 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 32.4% | +0.11 pp |
| 2024 | 32.3% | +0.18 pp |
| 2023 | 32.1% | −1.17 pp |
| 2022 | 33.3% | −0.74 pp |
| 2021 | 34.0% | +4.79 pp |
| 2020 | 29.2% | +0.75 pp |
| 2019 | 28.5% | +1.56 pp |
| 2018 | 26.9% | −0.13 pp |
| 2017 | 27.0% | +0.50 pp |
| 2016 | 26.5% | +1.39 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.