GDP per capita · South Africa
South Africa GDP per capita forecast
GDP per capita (current US$)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
$6,507
Median forecast · p10-p90: $5,566 to $7,774
24 months forecast · 2027
$6,401
Median forecast · p10-p90: $5,134 to $8,058
36 months forecast · 2028
$6,295
Median forecast · p10-p90: $4,801 to $8,309
Latest observed: $6,598 · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in Current US$
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | $573 | $521 | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | $771 | $645 | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | $681 | $360 | 100.0% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $6,598 | +5.27% |
| 2024 | $6,267 | +3.86% |
| 2023 | $6,034 | −7.65% |
| 2022 | $6,534 | −4.31% |
| 2021 | $6,829 | +22.37% |
| 2020 | $5,581 | −14.59% |
| 2019 | $6,534 | −5.50% |
| 2018 | $6,914 | +4.47% |
| 2017 | $6,618 | +17.11% |
| 2016 | $5,651 | −7.54% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.