Population · South Africa
South Africa population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
65.61M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 64.26M to 67.48M
24 months forecast · 2027
66.09M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 63.86M to 68.12M
36 months forecast · 2028
66.94M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 64.83M to 69.66M
Latest observed: 64.75M · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.50M | 0.84M | 100.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.14M | 1.67M | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.11M | 2.51M | 100.0% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 64.75M | +1.16% |
| 2024 | 64.01M | +1.26% |
| 2023 | 63.21M | +1.34% |
| 2022 | 62.38M | +1.42% |
| 2021 | 61.50M | +1.55% |
| 2020 | 60.56M | +1.64% |
| 2019 | 59.59M | +1.66% |
| 2018 | 58.61M | +1.70% |
| 2017 | 57.64M | +0.66% |
| 2016 | 57.26M | +0.94% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.