Unemployment · India
India unemployment forecast
Unemployment (% of labor force, ILO modeled)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
4.2%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 3.6% to 4.9%
24 months forecast · 2027
4.3%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 3.5% to 5.3%
36 months forecast · 2028
4.4%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 3.4% to 5.6%
Latest observed: 4.2% · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in % of labor force, ILO modeled
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.35 pp | 0.75 pp | 40.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 2.37 pp | 1.49 pp | 25.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 3.33 pp | 2.17 pp | 0.0% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.2% | +0.05 pp |
| 2024 | 4.2% | +0.00 pp |
| 2023 | 4.2% | −0.65 pp |
| 2022 | 4.8% | −1.56 pp |
| 2021 | 6.4% | −1.48 pp |
| 2020 | 7.9% | +1.35 pp |
| 2019 | 6.5% | −1.14 pp |
| 2018 | 7.7% | +0.03 pp |
| 2017 | 7.6% | +0.02 pp |
| 2016 | 7.6% | −0.02 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.