Population · India
India population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
1.48B
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1.47B to 1.50B
24 months forecast · 2027
1.48B
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1.47B to 1.50B
36 months forecast · 2028
1.50B
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1.48B to 1.51B
Latest observed: 1.46B · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 3.80M | 12.25M | 100.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 3.66M | 24.49M | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 3.59M | 36.88M | 100.0% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.46B | +0.89% |
| 2024 | 1.45B | +0.89% |
| 2023 | 1.44B | +0.89% |
| 2022 | 1.43B | +0.79% |
| 2021 | 1.41B | +0.83% |
| 2020 | 1.40B | +0.98% |
| 2019 | 1.39B | +1.05% |
| 2018 | 1.37B | +1.10% |
| 2017 | 1.36B | +1.17% |
| 2016 | 1.34B | +1.20% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.