GDP per capita · United Kingdom
United Kingdom GDP per capita forecast
GDP per capita (current US$)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
$59,287
Median forecast · p10-p90: $52,225 to $68,217
24 months forecast · 2027
$60,772
Median forecast · p10-p90: $51,048 to $72,722
36 months forecast · 2028
$62,137
Median forecast · p10-p90: $49,957 to $76,785
Latest observed: $57,602 · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in Current US$
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | $3,680 | $3,622 | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | $5,510 | $5,608 | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | $8,570 | $8,439 | 33.3% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 1 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $57,602 | +7.99% |
| 2024 | $53,341 | +6.85% |
| 2023 | $49,920 | +6.13% |
| 2022 | $47,035 | −1.39% |
| 2021 | $47,696 | +16.86% |
| 2020 | $40,815 | −5.43% |
| 2019 | $43,161 | −1.24% |
| 2018 | $43,704 | +6.81% |
| 2017 | $40,918 | −0.83% |
| 2016 | $41,259 | −8.83% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.