Population · United Kingdom
United Kingdom population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
69.55M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 68.70M to 70.56M
24 months forecast · 2027
69.56M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 68.51M to 70.89M
36 months forecast · 2028
69.72M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 68.37M to 71.20M
Latest observed: 69.49M · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.30M | 0.55M | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.80M | 1.26M | 25.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.04M | 1.98M | 33.3% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 69.49M | +0.30% |
| 2024 | 69.28M | +1.10% |
| 2023 | 68.53M | +1.32% |
| 2022 | 67.64M | +0.98% |
| 2021 | 66.98M | +0.36% |
| 2020 | 66.74M | +0.17% |
| 2019 | 66.63M | +0.51% |
| 2018 | 66.29M | +0.49% |
| 2017 | 65.96M | +0.55% |
| 2016 | 65.61M | +0.80% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.