Inflation · United Kingdom
United Kingdom inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
3.9%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 2.1% to 7.1%
24 months forecast · 2027
4.0%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1.9% to 7.8%
36 months forecast · 2028
4.0%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 1.7% to 8.1%
Latest observed: 3.9% · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in CPI, annual %
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 2.01 pp | 2.44 pp | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 3.89 pp | 4.69 pp | 50.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 2.84 pp | 3.53 pp | 66.7% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.9% | +0.61 pp |
| 2024 | 3.3% | −3.52 pp |
| 2023 | 6.8% | −1.13 pp |
| 2022 | 7.9% | +5.40 pp |
| 2021 | 2.5% | +1.53 pp |
| 2020 | 1.0% | −0.75 pp |
| 2019 | 1.7% | −0.55 pp |
| 2018 | 2.3% | −0.26 pp |
| 2017 | 2.6% | +1.55 pp |
| 2016 | 1.0% | +0.64 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.