Inflation forecast · World Bank data
United Kingdom inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Latest · 2025
3.9%
Inflation in the United Kingdom is forecast at 3.9% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of 2.1% to 7.1%. The latest World Bank figure is 3.9% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 4.0% and 4.0% (+0.1 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 20261 yr ahead
- 3.9%▲ +0.1 pp80%: 2.1% – 7.1%
- 20272 yr ahead
- 4.0%▲ +0.2 pp80%: 1.9% – 7.8%
- 20283 yr ahead
- 4.0%▲ +0.1 pp80%: 1.7% – 8.1%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr ahead | 5 | 2.01 pp | 2.44 pp | 80% |
| 2 yr ahead | 4 | 3.89 pp | 4.69 pp | 50% |
| 3 yr ahead | 3 | 2.84 pp | 3.53 pp | 67% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.9% | +0.61 pp |
| 2024 | 3.3% | −3.52 pp |
| 2023 | 6.8% | −1.13 pp |
| 2022 | 7.9% | +5.40 pp |
| 2021 | 2.5% | +1.53 pp |
| 2020 | 1.0% | −0.75 pp |
| 2019 | 1.7% | −0.55 pp |
| 2018 | 2.3% | −0.26 pp |
| 2017 | 2.6% | +1.55 pp |
| 2016 | 1.0% | +0.64 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG
- Data through
- 2025 · 66 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for United Kingdom
United Kingdom overviewOther inflation forecasts
All 39Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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