GDP per capita · Mexico
Mexico GDP per capita forecast
GDP per capita (current US$)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
$13,654
Median forecast · p10-p90: $11,902 to $15,878
24 months forecast · 2027
$13,780
Median forecast · p10-p90: $11,535 to $16,571
36 months forecast · 2028
$13,919
Median forecast · p10-p90: $11,162 to $17,197
Latest observed: $13,889 · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in Current US$
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | $1,481 | $1,049 | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | $2,656 | $2,180 | 50.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | $3,932 | $3,716 | 0.0% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $13,889 | −0.71% |
| 2024 | $13,988 | +1.14% |
| 2023 | $13,831 | +21.26% |
| 2022 | $11,406 | +10.59% |
| 2021 | $10,314 | +16.66% |
| 2020 | $8,841 | −14.74% |
| 2019 | $10,370 | +2.82% |
| 2018 | $10,085 | +4.51% |
| 2017 | $9,649 | +6.06% |
| 2016 | $9,098 | −9.21% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.