Inflation forecast · World Bank data
Mexico inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Latest · 2025
3.8%
Inflation in Mexico is forecast at 4.8% in 2026, with an 80% range of 3.3% to 10.9%. The latest World Bank figure is 3.8% for 2025.
For 2027 and 2028 the model projects 5.3% and 5.8% (+2.0 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 20261 yr ahead
- 4.8%▲ +1.0 pp80%: 3.3% – 10.9%
- 20272 yr ahead
- 5.3%▲ +1.5 pp80%: 2.9% – 14.0%
- 20283 yr ahead
- 5.8%▲ +2.0 pp80%: 2.2% – 17.6%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 yr ahead | 5 | 2.24 pp | 1.72 pp | 80% |
| 2 yr ahead | 4 | 2.88 pp | 2.39 pp | 100% |
| 3 yr ahead | 3 | 2.56 pp | 2.40 pp | 100% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.8% | −0.92 pp |
| 2024 | 4.7% | −0.81 pp |
| 2023 | 5.5% | −2.37 pp |
| 2022 | 7.9% | +2.21 pp |
| 2021 | 5.7% | +2.29 pp |
| 2020 | 3.4% | −0.24 pp |
| 2019 | 3.6% | −1.26 pp |
| 2018 | 4.9% | −1.14 pp |
| 2017 | 6.0% | +3.22 pp |
| 2016 | 2.8% | +0.10 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG
- Data through
- 2025 · 66 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Mexico
Mexico overviewOther inflation forecasts
All 39Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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