Population · Norway
Norway population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
5.65M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 5.59M to 5.76M
24 months forecast · 2027
5.69M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 5.63M to 5.83M
36 months forecast · 2028
5.74M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 5.68M to 5.90M
Latest observed: 5.61M · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.01M | 0.05M | 100.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.04M | 0.10M | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.04M | 0.15M | 66.7% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.61M | +0.69% |
| 2024 | 5.57M | +0.95% |
| 2023 | 5.52M | +1.14% |
| 2022 | 5.46M | +0.90% |
| 2021 | 5.41M | +0.54% |
| 2020 | 5.38M | +0.59% |
| 2019 | 5.35M | +0.68% |
| 2018 | 5.31M | +0.66% |
| 2017 | 5.28M | +0.81% |
| 2016 | 5.23M | +0.88% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.