Inflation · Norway
Norway inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
3.8%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 2.0% to 6.4%
24 months forecast · 2027
4.2%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 2.1% to 7.3%
36 months forecast · 2028
4.6%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 2.2% to 8.0%
Latest observed: 3.1% · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in CPI, annual %
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.81 pp | 1.44 pp | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 2.52 pp | 2.90 pp | 75.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.71 pp | 2.43 pp | 66.7% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 2 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.1% | −0.09 pp |
| 2024 | 3.1% | −2.37 pp |
| 2023 | 5.5% | −0.25 pp |
| 2022 | 5.8% | +2.28 pp |
| 2021 | 3.5% | +2.20 pp |
| 2020 | 1.3% | −0.88 pp |
| 2019 | 2.2% | −0.60 pp |
| 2018 | 2.8% | +0.89 pp |
| 2017 | 1.9% | −1.67 pp |
| 2016 | 3.6% | +1.38 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.