GDP per capita · New Zealand
New Zealand GDP per capita forecast
GDP per capita (current US$)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
$49,124
Median forecast · p10-p90: $44,880 to $54,802
24 months forecast · 2027
$49,203
Median forecast · p10-p90: $42,862 to $56,649
36 months forecast · 2028
$49,828
Median forecast · p10-p90: $41,603 to $58,843
Latest observed: $49,591 · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in Current US$
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | $2,161 | $1,811 | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | $2,730 | $2,067 | 75.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | $3,464 | $2,722 | 66.7% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $49,591 | +0.32% |
| 2024 | $49,432 | +0.26% |
| 2023 | $49,302 | +0.33% |
| 2022 | $49,142 | −1.52% |
| 2021 | $49,902 | +18.66% |
| 2020 | $42,055 | −1.91% |
| 2019 | $42,872 | −0.77% |
| 2018 | $43,204 | +0.68% |
| 2017 | $42,912 | +7.04% |
| 2016 | $40,088 | +3.72% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.