Population · New Zealand
New Zealand population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
5.41M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 5.34M to 5.46M
24 months forecast · 2027
5.49M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 5.37M to 5.59M
36 months forecast · 2028
5.53M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 5.31M to 5.63M
Latest observed: 5.32M · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.07M | 0.05M | 40.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.09M | 0.11M | 50.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.14M | 0.19M | 33.3% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 2 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.32M | +0.66% |
| 2024 | 5.29M | +1.73% |
| 2023 | 5.20M | +2.33% |
| 2022 | 5.08M | −0.06% |
| 2021 | 5.08M | +0.24% |
| 2020 | 5.07M | +2.05% |
| 2019 | 4.97M | +1.42% |
| 2018 | 4.90M | +1.81% |
| 2017 | 4.81M | +2.11% |
| 2016 | 4.71M | +2.27% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.