Population · Turkey
Turkey population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
86.72M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 85.61M to 89.27M
24 months forecast · 2027
86.82M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 85.25M to 90.26M
36 months forecast · 2028
87.30M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 85.58M to 91.20M
Latest observed: 85.88M · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.72M | 0.50M | 100.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.00M | 0.97M | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.38M | 1.40M | 100.0% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 1 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 85.88M | +0.42% |
| 2024 | 85.52M | +0.23% |
| 2023 | 85.33M | +0.41% |
| 2022 | 84.98M | +0.99% |
| 2021 | 84.15M | +0.91% |
| 2020 | 83.38M | +0.98% |
| 2019 | 82.58M | +1.44% |
| 2018 | 81.41M | +1.36% |
| 2017 | 80.31M | +1.31% |
| 2016 | 79.28M | +1.35% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.