Inflation · Turkey
Turkey inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
35.2%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 17.3% to 62.2%
24 months forecast · 2027
34.2%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 13.8% to 66.2%
36 months forecast · 2028
34.7%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 13.0% to 70.4%
Latest observed: 34.9% · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in CPI, annual %
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 18.74 pp | 21.35 pp | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 28.79 pp | 31.77 pp | 50.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 29.11 pp | 39.31 pp | 33.3% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 34.9% | −23.63 pp |
| 2024 | 58.5% | +4.65 pp |
| 2023 | 53.9% | −18.45 pp |
| 2022 | 72.3% | +52.71 pp |
| 2021 | 19.6% | +7.32 pp |
| 2020 | 12.3% | −2.90 pp |
| 2019 | 15.2% | −1.16 pp |
| 2018 | 16.3% | +5.19 pp |
| 2017 | 11.1% | +3.37 pp |
| 2016 | 7.8% | +0.10 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.