Population · South Korea
South Korea population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
51.73M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 50.74M to 51.73M
24 months forecast · 2027
51.64M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 50.49M to 51.88M
36 months forecast · 2028
51.78M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 50.69M to 51.85M
Latest observed: 51.68M · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.23M | 0.06M | 100.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.24M | 0.08M | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.26M | 0.05M | 100.0% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 51.68M | −0.13% |
| 2024 | 51.75M | +0.07% |
| 2023 | 51.71M | +0.08% |
| 2022 | 51.67M | −0.19% |
| 2021 | 51.77M | −0.13% |
| 2020 | 51.84M | +0.14% |
| 2019 | 51.76M | +0.35% |
| 2018 | 51.59M | +0.43% |
| 2017 | 51.36M | +0.28% |
| 2016 | 51.22M | +0.40% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.