Population · Portugal
Portugal population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
10.91M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 10.77M to 11.04M
24 months forecast · 2027
10.94M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 10.72M to 11.15M
36 months forecast · 2028
10.96M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 10.65M to 11.23M
Latest observed: 10.80M · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 0.05M | 0.10M | 60.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.09M | 0.21M | 50.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 0.19M | 0.33M | 33.3% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10.80M | +1.03% |
| 2024 | 10.69M | +1.10% |
| 2023 | 10.58M | +1.38% |
| 2022 | 10.43M | +0.70% |
| 2021 | 10.36M | +0.63% |
| 2020 | 10.30M | +0.11% |
| 2019 | 10.29M | +0.02% |
| 2018 | 10.28M | −0.16% |
| 2017 | 10.30M | −0.24% |
| 2016 | 10.33M | −0.31% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.