GDP growth forecast · World Bank data
Portugal GDP growth forecast
GDP growth (annual %)
Latest · 2025
1.9%
GDP growth in Portugal is forecast at 2.3% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of −1.3% to 5.3%. The latest World Bank figure is 1.9% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 2.3% and 2.3% (+0.4 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 2.1%▲ +0.2 pp80%: 0.3% – 3.6%
- 12 months2026
- 2.3%▲ +0.4 pp80%: −1.3% – 5.3%
- 24 months2027
- 2.3%▲ +0.4 pp80%: −1.7% – 5.6%
- 36 months2028
- 2.3%▲ +0.4 pp80%: −1.9% – 5.8%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 3.04 pp | 4.06 pp | 80% |
| 24 months | 4 | 3.30 pp | 5.91 pp | 75% |
| 36 months | 3 | 2.58 pp | 6.59 pp | 100% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.9% | −0.35 pp |
| 2024 | 2.2% | −0.89 pp |
| 2023 | 3.1% | −3.89 pp |
| 2022 | 7.0% | +1.43 pp |
| 2021 | 5.6% | +13.76 pp |
| 2020 | −8.2% | −10.95 pp |
| 2019 | 2.7% | −0.20 pp |
| 2018 | 2.9% | −0.37 pp |
| 2017 | 3.3% | +1.31 pp |
| 2016 | 2.0% | +0.41 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG
- Data through
- 2025 · 65 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Portugal
Portugal overviewOther GDP growth forecasts
All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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