Population · Indonesia
Indonesia population forecast
Population, total
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
289.1M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 287.1M to 291.5M
24 months forecast · 2027
290.5M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 287.6M to 295.0M
36 months forecast · 2028
293.4M
Median forecast · p10-p90: 288.8M to 299.2M
Latest observed: 285.7M · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in People
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.43M | 2.18M | 0.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 0.65M | 4.41M | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.41M | 6.67M | 100.0% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 285.7M | +0.79% |
| 2024 | 283.5M | +0.82% |
| 2023 | 281.2M | +0.85% |
| 2022 | 278.8M | +0.75% |
| 2021 | 276.8M | +0.71% |
| 2020 | 274.8M | +0.85% |
| 2019 | 272.5M | +0.94% |
| 2018 | 270.0M | +0.97% |
| 2017 | 267.3M | +1.03% |
| 2016 | 264.6M | +1.08% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · SP.POP.TOTL. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.