GDP growth · Sweden
Sweden GDP growth forecast
GDP growth (annual %)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
1.7%
Median forecast · p10-p90: −1.2% to 4.2%
24 months forecast · 2027
1.8%
Median forecast · p10-p90: −1.3% to 4.3%
36 months forecast · 2028
1.8%
Median forecast · p10-p90: −1.4% to 4.4%
Latest observed: 1.5% · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in Annual %
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.71 pp | 2.87 pp | 80.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.18 pp | 2.65 pp | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.42 pp | 2.08 pp | 100.0% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.5% | +0.53 pp |
| 2024 | 1.0% | +1.22 pp |
| 2023 | −0.2% | −1.46 pp |
| 2022 | 1.3% | −3.97 pp |
| 2021 | 5.2% | +7.16 pp |
| 2020 | −1.9% | −4.54 pp |
| 2019 | 2.6% | +0.84 pp |
| 2018 | 1.8% | −0.11 pp |
| 2017 | 1.9% | −0.25 pp |
| 2016 | 2.1% | −2.26 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.