Inflation · Sweden
Sweden inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
1.5%
Median forecast · p10-p90: −0.4% to 4.7%
24 months forecast · 2027
1.6%
Median forecast · p10-p90: −0.5% to 5.2%
36 months forecast · 2028
1.7%
Median forecast · p10-p90: −0.5% to 5.6%
Latest observed: 0.7% · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in CPI, annual %
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 3.68 pp | 3.18 pp | 40.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 5.65 pp | 6.91 pp | 25.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 4.20 pp | 5.47 pp | 33.3% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 2 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.7% | −2.16 pp |
| 2024 | 2.8% | −5.71 pp |
| 2023 | 8.5% | +0.18 pp |
| 2022 | 8.4% | +6.21 pp |
| 2021 | 2.2% | +1.67 pp |
| 2020 | 0.5% | −1.29 pp |
| 2019 | 1.8% | −0.17 pp |
| 2018 | 2.0% | +0.16 pp |
| 2017 | 1.8% | +0.81 pp |
| 2016 | 1.0% | +1.03 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.