Inflation · Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
3.9%
Median forecast · p10-p90: −0.4% to 10.0%
24 months forecast · 2027
5.5%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 0.8% to 12.1%
36 months forecast · 2028
5.6%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 0.9% to 12.7%
Latest observed: 2.1% · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in CPI, annual %
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.33 pp | 0.42 pp | 100.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 2.32 pp | 0.67 pp | 100.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 2.49 pp | 0.94 pp | 100.0% |
A simple no-change forecast had lower or equal average error at every horizon in these tests. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.1% | +0.40 pp |
| 2024 | 1.7% | −0.64 pp |
| 2023 | 2.3% | −0.15 pp |
| 2022 | 2.5% | −0.59 pp |
| 2021 | 3.1% | −0.31 pp |
| 2020 | 3.4% | +4.57 pp |
| 2019 | −1.2% | −3.66 pp |
| 2018 | 2.5% | +3.30 pp |
| 2017 | −0.8% | −2.89 pp |
| 2016 | 2.1% | +0.83 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.