GDP growth forecast · World Bank data
Russia GDP growth forecast
GDP growth (annual %)
Latest · 2025
1.0%
GDP growth in Russia is forecast at 2.7% in 12 months (2026), with an 80% range of −3.4% to 7.4%. The latest World Bank figure is 1.0% for 2025.
In 24 months (2027) and 36 months (2028) the model projects 2.7% and 2.9% (+1.9 pp versus 2025).
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
- 6 monthsinterpolated · display only
- 1.8%▲ +0.8 pp80%: −1.2% – 4.2%
- 12 months2026
- 2.7%▲ +1.7 pp80%: −3.4% – 7.4%
- 24 months2027
- 2.7%▲ +1.7 pp80%: −4.2% – 7.7%
- 36 months2028
- 2.9%▲ +1.9 pp80%: −4.6% – 8.2%
Backtest · last 5 years
How accurate has this been?
| Horizon | Tests | Avg. error | Naive error | In 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 3.77 pp | 5.22 pp | 80% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.84 pp | 3.11 pp | 100% |
| 36 months | 3 | 1.70 pp | 3.37 pp | 100% |
We re-ran the model as if standing at past dates, using only the data available then. Avg. error is the mean absolute gap between the median and what happened (percentage points); naive assumes no change from the last value. A well-calibrated 80% range contains about 80% of outcomes. Annual series have few test points, so treat these as rough. Methodology
Source data
Recent values
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.0% | −3.92 pp |
| 2024 | 4.9% | +0.86 pp |
| 2023 | 4.1% | +5.50 pp |
| 2022 | −1.4% | −7.30 pp |
| 2021 | 5.9% | +8.52 pp |
| 2020 | −2.7% | −4.85 pp |
| 2019 | 2.2% | −0.61 pp |
| 2018 | 2.8% | +0.98 pp |
| 2017 | 1.8% | +1.63 pp |
| 2016 | 0.2% | +2.17 pp |
About this forecast
- Source
- World Bank, World Development Indicators · series NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG
- Data through
- 2025 · 36 observations
- Forecast updated
- Sep 28, 2026
- Model
- TimesFM 2.5 (Google Research, Apache-2.0), zero-shot
More forecasts for Russia
Russia overviewOther GDP growth forecasts
All 40Statistical model, not financial advice. This forecast is generated automatically from public data; the 80% range means outcomes are expected outside it about one time in five. Don't make financial decisions based only on it.
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