Inflation · Uruguay
Uruguay inflation forecast
Inflation (CPI, annual %)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
12 months forecast · 2026
5.0%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 2.2% to 11.2%
24 months forecast · 2027
5.4%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 2.7% to 12.4%
36 months forecast · 2028
6.1%
Median forecast · p10-p90: 3.4% to 13.7%
Latest observed: 4.7% · 2025
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
Display-only line. World Bank data is annual: the forecasts are the yearly points marked on the chart. The monthly line between them is a straight-line interpolation for display, not a monthly forecast.
All values in CPI, annual %
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 5 | 1.39 pp | 1.56 pp | 100.0% |
| 24 months | 4 | 1.94 pp | 2.00 pp | 75.0% |
| 36 months | 3 | 3.06 pp | 3.75 pp | 66.7% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Year | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.7% | −0.20 pp |
| 2024 | 4.8% | −1.02 pp |
| 2023 | 5.9% | −3.24 pp |
| 2022 | 9.1% | +1.36 pp |
| 2021 | 7.7% | −2.01 pp |
| 2020 | 9.8% | +1.87 pp |
| 2019 | 7.9% | +0.28 pp |
| 2018 | 7.6% | +1.39 pp |
| 2017 | 6.2% | −3.42 pp |
| 2016 | 9.6% | +0.97 pp |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators · FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.