Commodities · Global
WTI crude oil price forecast
WTI crude oil price (US dollars per barrel)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Dec 2026
$91.40
Median forecast · p10-p90: $69.52 to $114.75
6 months forecast · Mar 2027
$91.15
Median forecast · p10-p90: $65.74 to $118.73
12 months forecast · Sep 2027
$90.57
Median forecast · p10-p90: $64.22 to $120.91
Latest observed: $96.41 · Sep 22, 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in US dollars per barrel
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 57 | $10.76 | $10.86 | 82.5% |
| 6 months | 54 | $13.50 | $13.27 | 77.8% |
| 12 months | 48 | $14.34 | $14.30 | 89.6% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 1 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | $96.41 | −0.58% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | $96.97 | −4.41% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | $101.44 | −1.71% |
| Sep 17, 2026 | $103.21 | −0.40% |
| Sep 16, 2026 | $103.62 | −3.18% |
| Sep 15, 2026 | $107.02 | +4.49% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | $102.42 | +1.14% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | $101.27 | −2.22% |
| Sep 10, 2026 | $103.57 | +6.49% |
| Sep 9, 2026 | $97.26 | +3.24% |
Sources & limits
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · DCOILWTICO. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.