Commodities · Global
Brent crude oil price forecast
Brent crude oil price (US dollars per barrel)
Model run: Sep 28, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Dec 2026
$99.62
Median forecast · p10-p90: $72.15 to $135.44
6 months forecast · Mar 2027
$97.04
Median forecast · p10-p90: $66.93 to $137.92
12 months forecast · Sep 2027
$95.26
Median forecast · p10-p90: $63.69 to $138.77
Latest observed: $114.89 · Sep 22, 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in US dollars per barrel
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | $11.57 | $11.63 | 82.8% |
| 6 months | 55 | $14.22 | $13.96 | 80.0% |
| 12 months | 49 | $13.65 | $15.52 | 89.8% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 2 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | $114.89 | −1.08% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | $116.15 | −2.93% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | $119.66 | −1.25% |
| Sep 17, 2026 | $121.18 | −5.21% |
| Sep 16, 2026 | $127.84 | −2.26% |
| Sep 15, 2026 | $130.80 | +7.88% |
| Sep 14, 2026 | $121.25 | +2.70% |
| Sep 11, 2026 | $118.06 | −2.41% |
| Sep 10, 2026 | $120.98 | +10.47% |
| Sep 9, 2026 | $109.51 | +3.19% |
Sources & limits
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · DCOILBRENTEU. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.