Commodities · Global
Gold price forecast
Gold (USD per troy ounce, monthly average)
Model run: Oct 3, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Dec 2026
$4,197
Median forecast · p10-p90: $3,676 to $4,853
6 months forecast · Mar 2027
$4,078
Median forecast · p10-p90: $3,410 to $4,952
12 months forecast · Sep 2027
$3,866
Median forecast · p10-p90: $2,929 to $5,017
Latest observed: $4,319 · Sep 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in USD per troy ounce, monthly average
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | $210 | $224 | 74.1% |
| 6 months | 55 | $383 | $386 | 50.9% |
| 12 months | 49 | $690 | $657 | 42.9% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 2 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | $4,319 | −2.09% |
| Aug 2026 | $4,411 | +8.30% |
| Jul 2026 | $4,073 | −3.67% |
| Jun 2026 | $4,228 | −7.83% |
| May 2026 | $4,587 | −2.84% |
| Apr 2026 | $4,721 | −2.78% |
| Mar 2026 | $4,856 | −3.27% |
| Feb 2026 | $5,020 | +5.62% |
| Jan 2026 | $4,753 | +10.30% |
| Dec 2025 | $4,309 | +5.43% |
| Nov 2025 | $4,087 | +0.71% |
| Oct 2025 | $4,058 | +10.63% |
Sources & limits
Source: World Bank Pink Sheet · CC BY 4.0 · PINKSHEET_GOLD. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.