Stock indices · United States
S&P 500 forecast
S&P 500 index level (daily close)
Model run: Sep 29, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Dec 2026
7,904
Median forecast · p10-p90: 7,490 to 8,253
6 months forecast · Mar 2027
8,109
Median forecast · p10-p90: 7,476 to 8,661
12 months forecast · Sep 2027
8,265
Median forecast · p10-p90: 7,275 to 9,107
Latest observed: 7,684 · Sep 28, 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in Index points
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 57 | 273 | 319 | 71.9% |
| 6 months | 54 | 442 | 503 | 64.8% |
| 12 months | 48 | 703 | 882 | 60.4% |
In these tests the model had lower average error than a no-change forecast at all 3 horizons. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | 7,684 | −0.77% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 7,743 | +0.51% |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 7,704 | −0.02% |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 7,706 | −0.75% |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 7,765 | −0.00% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 7,765 | +1.49% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 7,651 | +0.17% |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 7,638 | +1.14% |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 7,552 | −0.45% |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 7,586 | −0.45% |
Sources & limits
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · SP500. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.