Stock indices · United States
Nasdaq Composite forecast
Nasdaq Composite index level (daily close)
Model run: Sep 29, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Dec 2026
27,327
Median forecast · p10-p90: 25,017 to 29,409
6 months forecast · Mar 2027
27,869
Median forecast · p10-p90: 24,515 to 30,877
12 months forecast · Sep 2027
28,117
Median forecast · p10-p90: 22,365 to 33,160
Latest observed: 26,820 · Sep 28, 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in Index points
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 57 | 1,409 | 1,399 | 73.7% |
| 6 months | 54 | 1,969 | 2,137 | 68.5% |
| 12 months | 48 | 3,305 | 3,690 | 68.8% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 2 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | 26,820 | −0.92% |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 27,069 | +0.48% |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 26,939 | +0.01% |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 26,936 | −1.13% |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 27,244 | +0.45% |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 27,122 | +2.26% |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 26,523 | +0.39% |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 26,418 | +1.69% |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 25,978 | −0.01% |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 25,982 | −0.78% |
Sources & limits
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · NASDAQCOM. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.