Energy · United States
Henry Hub natural gas price forecast
Henry Hub natural gas spot price (US dollars per MMBtu)
Model run: Oct 21, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Jan 2027
3.26
Median forecast · p10-p90: 2.56 to 4.36
6 months forecast · Apr 2027
3.31
Median forecast · p10-p90: 2.49 to 4.97
12 months forecast · Oct 2027
3.34
Median forecast · p10-p90: 2.54 to 4.84
Latest observed: 3.10 · Oct 20, 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in US dollars per MMBtu
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 57 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 77.2% |
| 6 months | 54 | 1.23 | 1.40 | 79.6% |
| 12 months | 48 | 1.25 | 1.46 | 79.2% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 2 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | 3.10 | −5.49% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3.28 | +1.86% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 3.22 | −2.42% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 3.30 | +2.48% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3.22 | +2.55% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 3.14 | +1.29% |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 3.10 | 0.00% |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 3.10 | −4.32% |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 3.24 | +2.53% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 3.16 | +4.29% |
Sources & limits
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration · NG.RNGWHHD.D. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.