Energy · United States
US electricity price forecast
US average retail electricity price, all sectors (cents per kilowatt-hour)
Model run: Sep 29, 2026 · TimesFM 2.5
3 months forecast · Oct 2026
14.32
Median forecast · p10-p90: 13.87 to 14.88
6 months forecast · Jan 2027
14.26
Median forecast · p10-p90: 13.67 to 14.99
12 months forecast · Jul 2027
15.23
Median forecast · p10-p90: 14.37 to 16.31
Latest observed: 14.99 · Jul 2026
Choose a horizon
The median and range update together.
History & forecast
White: observed history. Blue: forecast median. Shaded: p10-p90 model range.
All values in Cents per kilowatt-hour
Model validation
| Horizon | Tests | Model errorModel | No-change errorNo change | Band coverageCoverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 58 | 0.31 | 0.56 | 75.9% |
| 6 months | 55 | 0.44 | 0.58 | 69.1% |
| 12 months | 49 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 67.3% |
In these tests the model beat a no-change forecast at 2 of 3 horizons; no change was better or equal at the rest. Rolling backtests of this model on the latest revised history; overlapping forecast errors are not independent. The p10-p90 band is a model range, not a calibrated guarantee. Methodology · Forecast audit
Evidence & context
Source data
Source & observed data
| Date | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | 14.99 | +3.52% |
| Jun 2026 | 14.48 | +4.70% |
| May 2026 | 13.83 | −0.36% |
| Apr 2026 | 13.88 | −2.12% |
| Mar 2026 | 14.18 | −1.25% |
| Feb 2026 | 14.36 | +1.34% |
| Jan 2026 | 14.17 | +3.20% |
| Dec 2025 | 13.73 | +2.23% |
| Nov 2025 | 13.43 | −1.68% |
| Oct 2025 | 13.66 | −3.87% |
| Sep 2025 | 14.21 | −0.07% |
| Aug 2025 | 14.22 | −0.97% |
Sources & limits
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration · ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.M. Methodology · Forecast audit
Historical context
Outside the model
What could change this forecast?
A small, dated reading list. TimesFM sees the data series, not these stories. This context is not a trading signal.
No recent item selected for this series. We would rather leave this quiet than fill it with a weak match.
Selected for relevance, not a claim of causation. Source dates stay visible. Original reporting remains with its publisher.