US CPI · Interactive scenario lab
What would inflation look like
under your assumptions?
Start with the official CPI index. Choose a monthly price change and a one-time price-level shock. Compare your hypothetical path with the published TimesFM forecast. The model does not rerun when you move a slider.
Your assumptions · not model output
Build a scenario
Same month-on-month change in each future month. This is an assumption about the total CPI index, not a seasonally adjusted forecast.
Multiplies the total price index once; its level effect persists. Not an energy-price shock or an estimated causal effect.
Presets are examples, not likely outcomes or investment recommendations. Slider limits are exploration bounds, not probability limits.
Inflation: next 12 months
12-month change (%)October 2026 scenario YoY is unavailable: BLS has no October 2025 CPI index. The dashed connector spans that missing month; it is not a calculated value. TimesFM still has a model prediction for that month.
Check every month
All inflation values below are 12-month changes. CPI index uses the official 1982-84=100 base.
| Month | Model median | Model p10-p90 | Scenario YoY | Scenario CPI index |
|---|
What this tool can and cannot tell you
The scenario is arithmetic, not another forecast: future CPI = previous CPI × (1 + monthly change / 100), with a one-time multiplier (1 + shock / 100) in your selected month. YoY = 100 × (scenario CPI / official CPI 12 months earlier − 1). Official missing values stay missing.
The blue line and range are the real published TimesFM 2.5 forecast, built from monthly BLS inflation history through 2026-09. They stay fixed. The orange line is your input translated into a CPI path; it has no estimated probability or confidence band. It can fall outside the model range without being impossible.
This does not model energy weights, substitution, policy responses or correlations. It cannot say how an oil-price shock would transmit into inflation. Constant monthly assumptions also ignore seasonal patterns. Historical range coverage varies; p10-p90 is a nominal 80% model range, not a guarantee. See the source forecast and backtest.
Official BLS index history · Release (2026-10-14) · Back to US inflation
Statistical scenarios, not financial advice. No causal claim, no investment recommendation. Inputs remain in your browser and are not saved or sent.