{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "generated_at": "2026-09-30T11:55:05Z",
  "model": {
    "name": "TimesFM 2.5",
    "checkpoint": "google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch",
    "revision": "1d952420fba87f3c6dee4f240de0f1a0fbc790e3",
    "weights_sha256": "2f776efe6245e42b24bc4153ffdf61810140210e4bd3b01fb21f7aa779ab6ce8",
    "package": "timesfm 2.0.2",
    "license": "Apache-2.0",
    "provisional": false
  },
  "method": {
    "type": "rolling-origin",
    "holdout_years": 5,
    "origin_step": {
      "annual": "1 year",
      "quarterly": "1 quarter",
      "monthly": "1 month",
      "daily": "21 trading days"
    },
    "min_context": {
      "annual": 8,
      "quarterly": 16,
      "monthly": 36,
      "daily": 252
    },
    "benchmark": "naive forecast (last observed value)",
    "metrics": {
      "mae": "mean absolute error of p50, in series units",
      "mape": "mean absolute % error of p50 (ratio-scale families only)",
      "rel_mae": "geometric mean over series of MAE / naive MAE (<1 beats naive)",
      "coverage_80": "share of outcomes inside the p10-p90 band (target 0.80)"
    }
  },
  "families": {
    "commodities": {
      "category": "commodities",
      "scale": "ratio",
      "primary_metric": "mape",
      "mae_unit": "series units (mixed across series)",
      "series": 3,
      "horizons": {
        "3m": {
          "series": 3,
          "forecasts": 173,
          "mae": 241.378,
          "naive_mae": 220.536,
          "mape": 10.8658,
          "naive_mape": 10.7054,
          "rel_mae": 1.02653,
          "coverage_80": 0.83815
        },
        "6m": {
          "series": 3,
          "forecasts": 164,
          "mae": 399.516,
          "naive_mae": 353.648,
          "mape": 14.4833,
          "naive_mape": 13.8817,
          "rel_mae": 1.05468,
          "coverage_80": 0.792683
        },
        "12m": {
          "series": 3,
          "forecasts": 146,
          "mae": 532.884,
          "naive_mae": 463.586,
          "mape": 16.6705,
          "naive_mape": 16.9089,
          "rel_mae": 1.00583,
          "coverage_80": 0.856164
        }
      }
    },
    "fx": {
      "category": "fx",
      "scale": "ratio",
      "primary_metric": "mape",
      "mae_unit": "series units (mixed across series)",
      "horizons": {
        "3m": {
          "series": 19,
          "forecasts": 1082,
          "mae": 20.0667,
          "naive_mae": 20.5075,
          "mape": 3.70018,
          "naive_mape": 3.84021,
          "rel_mae": 1.01179,
          "coverage_80": 0.831793
        },
        "6m": {
          "series": 19,
          "forecasts": 1025,
          "mae": 30.1385,
          "naive_mae": 32.5224,
          "mape": 5.38602,
          "naive_mape": 5.61769,
          "rel_mae": 1.00977,
          "coverage_80": 0.797073
        },
        "12m": {
          "series": 19,
          "forecasts": 911,
          "mae": 47.3731,
          "naive_mae": 52.1724,
          "mape": 7.96539,
          "naive_mape": 8.18012,
          "rel_mae": 1.02327,
          "coverage_80": 0.791438
        }
      }
    },
    "gdp-growth": {
      "category": "macro",
      "scale": "percent",
      "primary_metric": "mae",
      "mae_unit": "percentage points",
      "series": 40,
      "horizons": {
        "1y": {
          "series": 40,
          "forecasts": 200,
          "mae": 2.46534,
          "naive_mae": 3.9585,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 0.594066,
          "coverage_80": 0.765
        },
        "2y": {
          "series": 40,
          "forecasts": 160,
          "mae": 2.14548,
          "naive_mae": 4.61779,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 0.439515,
          "coverage_80": 0.85
        },
        "3y": {
          "series": 40,
          "forecasts": 120,
          "mae": 1.71894,
          "naive_mae": 4.46174,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 0.354627,
          "coverage_80": 0.941667
        }
      }
    },
    "gdp-per-capita": {
      "category": "macro",
      "scale": "ratio",
      "primary_metric": "mape",
      "mae_unit": "series units (mixed across series)",
      "series": 40,
      "horizons": {
        "1y": {
          "series": 40,
          "forecasts": 200,
          "mae": 2714.53,
          "naive_mae": 2945.3,
          "mape": 7.66128,
          "naive_mape": 7.56975,
          "rel_mae": 0.981872,
          "coverage_80": 0.86
        },
        "2y": {
          "series": 40,
          "forecasts": 160,
          "mae": 3963.9,
          "naive_mae": 4346.86,
          "mape": 11.2612,
          "naive_mape": 11.3932,
          "rel_mae": 0.953635,
          "coverage_80": 0.79375
        },
        "3y": {
          "series": 40,
          "forecasts": 120,
          "mae": 5409.62,
          "naive_mae": 5926.48,
          "mape": 15.8199,
          "naive_mape": 15.7305,
          "rel_mae": 0.987282,
          "coverage_80": 0.708333
        }
      }
    },
    "inflation-cpi": {
      "category": "macro",
      "scale": "percent",
      "primary_metric": "mae",
      "mae_unit": "percentage points",
      "series": 39,
      "horizons": {
        "1y": {
          "series": 39,
          "forecasts": 195,
          "mae": 2.79644,
          "naive_mae": 2.89073,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 1.00317,
          "coverage_80": 0.738462
        },
        "2y": {
          "series": 39,
          "forecasts": 156,
          "mae": 4.15608,
          "naive_mae": 4.83221,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 0.885971,
          "coverage_80": 0.589744
        },
        "3y": {
          "series": 39,
          "forecasts": 117,
          "mae": 3.24982,
          "naive_mae": 4.36738,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 0.748641,
          "coverage_80": 0.700855
        }
      }
    },
    "population": {
      "category": "macro",
      "scale": "ratio",
      "primary_metric": "mape",
      "mae_unit": "series units (mixed across series)",
      "series": 40,
      "horizons": {
        "1y": {
          "series": 40,
          "forecasts": 200,
          "mae": 449748.0,
          "naive_mae": 711097.0,
          "mape": 0.576478,
          "naive_mape": 0.831234,
          "rel_mae": 0.638713,
          "coverage_80": 0.845
        },
        "2y": {
          "series": 40,
          "forecasts": 160,
          "mae": 482085.0,
          "naive_mae": 1426390.0,
          "mape": 0.848654,
          "naive_mape": 1.61934,
          "rel_mae": 0.46478,
          "coverage_80": 0.85625
        },
        "3y": {
          "series": 40,
          "forecasts": 120,
          "mae": 783050.0,
          "naive_mae": 2141640.0,
          "mape": 1.26779,
          "naive_mape": 2.465,
          "rel_mae": 0.500182,
          "coverage_80": 0.8
        }
      }
    },
    "rates": {
      "category": "rates",
      "scale": "percent",
      "primary_metric": "mae",
      "mae_unit": "percentage points",
      "series": 3,
      "horizons": {
        "3m": {
          "series": 3,
          "forecasts": 172,
          "mae": 0.392593,
          "naive_mae": 0.40343,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 0.976865,
          "coverage_80": 0.813953
        },
        "6m": {
          "series": 3,
          "forecasts": 163,
          "mae": 0.669889,
          "naive_mae": 0.660859,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 1.01913,
          "coverage_80": 0.742331
        },
        "12m": {
          "series": 3,
          "forecasts": 145,
          "mae": 1.10823,
          "naive_mae": 1.09193,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 1.02182,
          "coverage_80": 0.682759
        }
      }
    },
    "real-interest-rate": {
      "category": "macro",
      "scale": "percent",
      "primary_metric": "mae",
      "mae_unit": "percentage points",
      "series": 27,
      "horizons": {
        "1y": {
          "series": 27,
          "forecasts": 135,
          "mae": 3.41011,
          "naive_mae": 3.62198,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 0.976869,
          "coverage_80": 0.740741
        },
        "2y": {
          "series": 27,
          "forecasts": 108,
          "mae": 4.10353,
          "naive_mae": 4.94429,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 0.877944,
          "coverage_80": 0.666667
        },
        "3y": {
          "series": 27,
          "forecasts": 81,
          "mae": 4.01144,
          "naive_mae": 4.99118,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 0.806487,
          "coverage_80": 0.703704
        }
      }
    },
    "unemployment": {
      "category": "macro",
      "scale": "percent",
      "primary_metric": "mae",
      "mae_unit": "percentage points",
      "series": 40,
      "horizons": {
        "1y": {
          "series": 40,
          "forecasts": 200,
          "mae": 0.637976,
          "naive_mae": 0.657535,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 1.00971,
          "coverage_80": 0.825
        },
        "2y": {
          "series": 40,
          "forecasts": 160,
          "mae": 1.11148,
          "naive_mae": 1.14117,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 1.02089,
          "coverage_80": 0.7375
        },
        "3y": {
          "series": 40,
          "forecasts": 120,
          "mae": 1.47398,
          "naive_mae": 1.44944,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 1.10027,
          "coverage_80": 0.658333
        }
      }
    },
    "indices": {
      "category": "indices",
      "scale": "ratio",
      "primary_metric": "mape",
      "mae_unit": "series units (mixed across series)",
      "series": 2,
      "horizons": {
        "3m": {
          "series": 2,
          "forecasts": 114,
          "mae": 841.222,
          "naive_mae": 859.075,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 0.928465,
          "coverage_80": 0.72807
        },
        "6m": {
          "series": 2,
          "forecasts": 108,
          "mae": 1205.36,
          "naive_mae": 1319.96,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 0.899876,
          "coverage_80": 0.666667
        },
        "12m": {
          "series": 2,
          "forecasts": 96,
          "mae": 2004.07,
          "naive_mae": 2286.12,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "rel_mae": 0.844989,
          "coverage_80": 0.645834
        }
      }
    },
    "energy": {
      "category": "energy",
      "scale": "ratio",
      "primary_metric": "mape",
      "mae_unit": "series units (mixed across series)",
      "series": 2,
      "horizons": {
        "6m": {
          "series": 2,
          "forecasts": 109,
          "mae": 0.828967,
          "naive_mae": 0.981836,
          "rel_mae": 0.817069,
          "coverage_80": 0.743119,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null
        },
        "12m": {
          "series": 2,
          "forecasts": 97,
          "mae": 0.987063,
          "naive_mae": 1.048248,
          "rel_mae": 0.985423,
          "coverage_80": 0.742268,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null
        },
        "3m": {
          "series": 2,
          "forecasts": 115,
          "mae": 0.610479,
          "naive_mae": 0.729304,
          "rel_mae": 0.784435,
          "coverage_80": 0.8,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null
        }
      }
    },
    "industrial-production": {
      "category": "macro",
      "scale": "ratio",
      "primary_metric": "mape",
      "mae_unit": "index points",
      "series": 6,
      "horizons": {
        "3m": {
          "series": 6,
          "forecasts": 348,
          "mae": 1.3130908333333333,
          "naive_mae": 1.3701163333333333,
          "mape": 1.289266,
          "naive_mape": 1.344767,
          "coverage_80": 0.8908046666666668,
          "rel_mae": 0.948698003775461
        },
        "6m": {
          "series": 6,
          "forecasts": 330,
          "mae": 1.6905281666666665,
          "naive_mae": 1.6218191666666668,
          "mape": 1.662516333333333,
          "naive_mape": 1.590923,
          "coverage_80": 0.8878788333333332,
          "rel_mae": 1.021301600647084
        },
        "12m": {
          "series": 6,
          "forecasts": 294,
          "mae": 2.3821653333333335,
          "naive_mae": 2.1659866666666665,
          "mape": 2.3650663333333335,
          "naive_mape": 2.1408400000000003,
          "coverage_80": 0.8571429999999999,
          "rel_mae": 1.0591055212929776
        }
      }
    },
    "hicp-index": {
      "category": "macro",
      "scale": "ratio",
      "primary_metric": "mape",
      "mae_unit": "index points",
      "series": 6,
      "horizons": {
        "3m": {
          "series": 6,
          "forecasts": 348,
          "mae": 0.9493013333333332,
          "naive_mae": 1.3235333333333335,
          "mape": 1.0117413333333334,
          "naive_mape": 1.4035516666666665,
          "coverage_80": 0.867816,
          "rel_mae": 0.711447171984334
        },
        "6m": {
          "series": 6,
          "forecasts": 330,
          "mae": 1.3767266666666667,
          "naive_mae": 2.203,
          "mape": 1.4628833333333333,
          "naive_mape": 2.326996666666666,
          "coverage_80": 0.8333331666666668,
          "rel_mae": 0.6287728443198266
        },
        "12m": {
          "series": 6,
          "forecasts": 294,
          "mae": 2.2830983333333332,
          "naive_mae": 3.8302033333333334,
          "mape": 2.386505,
          "naive_mape": 3.981308333333333,
          "coverage_80": 0.8537415,
          "rel_mae": 0.5987927836164733
        }
      }
    },
    "unemployment-monthly": {
      "category": "macro",
      "scale": "percent",
      "primary_metric": "mae",
      "mae_unit": "percentage points",
      "series": 6,
      "horizons": {
        "3m": {
          "series": 6,
          "forecasts": 348,
          "mae": 0.18464555,
          "naive_mae": 0.18160913333333334,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "coverage_80": 0.9109193333333332,
          "rel_mae": 1.0290273083582246
        },
        "6m": {
          "series": 6,
          "forecasts": 330,
          "mae": 0.296343,
          "naive_mae": 0.26909116666666666,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "coverage_80": 0.9181818333333333,
          "rel_mae": 1.112988878903601
        },
        "12m": {
          "series": 6,
          "forecasts": 294,
          "mae": 0.48212183333333325,
          "naive_mae": 0.42040816666666664,
          "mape": null,
          "naive_mape": null,
          "coverage_80": 0.9489796666666667,
          "rel_mae": 1.2118898151958457
        }
      }
    },
    "retail-volume": {
      "category": "macro",
      "scale": "ratio",
      "primary_metric": "mape",
      "mae_unit": "index points",
      "series": 6,
      "horizons": {
        "3m": {
          "series": 6,
          "forecasts": 348,
          "mae": 1.1343838333333334,
          "naive_mae": 1.095117,
          "mape": 1.1011811666666667,
          "naive_mape": 1.0603321666666665,
          "coverage_80": 0.9281610000000001,
          "rel_mae": 1.0467677084049023
        },
        "6m": {
          "series": 6,
          "forecasts": 330,
          "mae": 1.4942916666666664,
          "naive_mae": 1.4027291666666668,
          "mape": 1.4525933333333334,
          "naive_mape": 1.3527820000000002,
          "coverage_80": 0.9151513333333333,
          "rel_mae": 1.0782114419016495
        },
        "12m": {
          "series": 6,
          "forecasts": 294,
          "mae": 2.355305,
          "naive_mae": 2.1989783333333333,
          "mape": 2.302731666666667,
          "naive_mape": 2.117183333333333,
          "coverage_80": 0.8401361666666666,
          "rel_mae": 1.0794760804922081
        }
      }
    }
  }
}